Giants baseball fans are probably shuddering at even the mere mention of trading Tim Lincecum, and I’m sure to get a few hate emails and comments for broaching the subject, but when word got out that CC Sabathia was going to opt out of his contract with the Yankees, it got me to thinking. Yes, Lincecum is younger, has not one, but two Cy Young awards, and a World Series ring, but Sabathia is no slouch himself with a Cy Young from his days with Cleveland, averaging 19 wins and 215 Ks over the last 3 seasons, and he absolutely annihilated NL hitters during his half season with Milwaukee. Both are strong competitors and both will cost a boatload of money. However, Sabathia, who is only 30, is a local boy who could settle for a hometown discount, while Lincecum still has 2 more years of abritration eligibility which could, as we saw last year, get ugly.
I know, I know….stop yelling. The probability of a potential swap of aces is highly unlikely. Timmy has been the face of the franchise now for the last 3+ years and all indications of a quiet Giants off season lead to us locking in our star hurler for a long time and for big bucks. But could that actually be detrimental to the team in the long run, especially if there’s the possibility of an ugly arbitration battle in lieu of a potentially less expensive, high end alternative?
Let’s talk about the arbitration process first. It’s certainly no picnic and the reason every GM tries to sign the player before it gets to the arbitration table is because it can get to be a rather unpleasant situation, not just for the parties involved, but for the team in general. The player submits a number saying that he is worth X. The team submits a number saying that the player is worth Y. Sometimes the difference between X and Y is negligible in terms of MLB dollars, and sometimes the difference can be astronomical. If the two sides don’t come to an agreement before the arbitration date, then they find themselves sitting on opposite sides of the table, badmouthing each other as they plead their respective cases. Doesn’t sound pretty, does it?
Well, when Lincecum became eligible and hadn’t negotiated any kid of a deal with the team, both sides got ready for the ensuing process. The Giants submitted an $8M figure and Lincecum ended up doing the team a huge favor by only countering with $13M. Let me reiterate….a HUGE favor. That number could have been outlandishly higher, possibly somewhere in the $18-$20M range.
All sorts of stories began to spread in the media about the team’s concerns with their prized, young talent. Between the marijuana arrest and the talk of potential health concerns, it sounded like the situation was going to take a turn for the worst. It sounded like the team was getting ready to go for the jugular and a mild panic ensued throughout the Giants community (the fans, that is) that the bitter dispute was not going to end well for them or the team. Fortunately, the two sides came to an agreement and Lincecum signed a two year, $23M compromise. Disaster averted. For now…
When the season ends this year, so does Lincecum’s two year deal and we’re right back to where we were last season. Only this time, Lincecum helped deliver a World Series title to a championship starved city and has already reached iconic status at a mere 26 years of age. He’s got a little more juice to bring to the table this time.
But so do the Giants. Despite collecting his first World Series ring, 2010 was not a banner year for Lincecum. He did not get hurt, as the Giants mentioned was a possibility given the righty’s unconventional delivery, but he regressed statistically across the board. Lincecum’s 3.44 ERA and 1.27 WHIP (walks+hits/innings pitched) were significantly higher than they had been in his two previous seasons. His strikeout rate took a significant drop and he allowed 18 HR, six more than his previous high. All that and his velocity was down all year. And sure, they won it all, but was Lincecum the playoff hero amongst the pitchers or did that honor go to Matt Cain?
You don’t think the Giants will use any of this at the arbitartion table, do you?
So you see where I’m going here, right? The market value of a player with Lincecum’s resume is ridiculously high, and while we still have atleast 2 years to work on some sort of a long term deal, the process could get extremely tenuous. Especially when we’re also going to have to go through negotiations with Cain, Jonatahn Sanchez and Brian Wilson, not to mention potential arbitration battles with Madison Bumgarner and Buster Posey. As much as I’d love to be a big league GM, I do not envy the position Brian Sabean will be in over these next two years.
So let’s get back to Sabathia now. Sabathia who was given an opt-out clause by the Yankees, and after the three seasons he’ll have added to his resume can walk for greener pastures. Now the speculation is that he will just re-negotiate with New York and get them to bump that $23M per to a little more than $25M. But what if that’s not the case?
If you follow the Yankees at all, you’ll see that they are in a very precarious situation right now and are potentially on the downside of what was an historic run. Derek Jeter is getting older, Alex Rodriguez is battered and in a decline, Andy Pettitte just retired and Mariano Rivera is likely to follow suit very soon. In short, the team is in transition and throwing money at big named free agents isn’t going to rescue them from a potentially extended playoff absence.
They’ve got a ton of money locked into Mark Teixeira, even more stupid money going to Bust of the Decade candidate, A.J. Burnett, an overpayment to keep Jeter in town, and A-Rod still has a few years at a few bazillion dollars still to go. There’s been some rumblings about dissension between the Steinbrenner brothers regarding “making it rain” at Club MLB, so what if the team doesn’t want to pony up a few extra mil to Sabathia. It’s not like locking him up is going to bring them a title anytime soon. They have a lot more issues than people realize, and I haven’t even begun to discuss the power moves of the Red Sox this off season.
So now think back to when Sabathia was a free agent in after the 2008 season. There was plenty of speculation that the Vallejo native would be willing to forgo the big bucks and sign with his hometown Giants for the love of pitching where he grew up. Unfortuantely, those hopes were quickly dashed when it was obvious that New York would come banging on his door with giant sacks of money in hand. But what about now? Sabathia has made his money, collected those fat paychecks. Does he really need to fight for more money or can he settle for a little bit less to come home and pitch for a team that probably has a better chance to win another title faster?
Perhaps a trade isn’t such a bad idea. Lincecum is only 4 years younger, has shown a slight regression, and could tie the Giants up in a bitter and expensive fued for the next two years. Sabathia, who has lost 20 lbs this off season, has shown great durability, seems to be cruising right along at elite pitching levels, and could possibly take a lower salary which would enable the Giants to freely negotiate with Cain and the rest of their youth.
Hmmmmmm. Interesting food for thought.
SF Giants Report out!
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{ 46 comments… read them below or add one }
Not just no, but, HELL NO!
I’m glad the Yanks have CC and will never trade him.
given the recent hubub here in NY about the opt out in CC’s contract… that has to play a role here as well.
Of course it does, but would CC waive it if he got the chance to renegotiate with the Giants?
A friend brought this article to my attention over here in Italy and it definitely sold some vino. Try not to scare me like that again. I’m an old Giants fan and a postulation like that could give me a stroke. We love the kid, and he’s just getting started 2 Cy Youngs notwithstanding…
why not bring in cc and givem sanchez and zito and a prospect
Sanchez, I could see the Yankees dealing for, but not for CC. No one’s taking Zito….not with that contract or his overall performance since signing it.
Which brings me to another point here…
Some of the responses on Twitter and a particularly unsavory email in my Inbox all acknowledge that since the Zito (and Rowand) debacle, the Giants would never give such a long and/or expensive contract. If that’s the case, then what’s going to happen with Lincecum and the re-negotiation? Is he going to accept the Giants offerings of 2 or 3 year deals and play it like that or is he, at some point, going to want the security of a long term deal?
And if the Giants are reluctant to pony up a bunch of money, what is Lincecum going to when he sees pitchers of less quality than he getting massive deals? I don’t know him personally, but something tells me that he’s going to want the big money that he sees everyone else getting.
Great article and thanks!
You dont envy Sabean’s position? I think every GM west of the rays envy Sabean’s position. He has so much talent to work with.
Lincecum for CC…now that’s a thought provoking column! After I got by my initial reaction (what?!!!) I have to admit I was intrigued by your reasoning. Obviously you gave it a lot of thought and it certainly caught the attention of everyone. As for Sabean, I agree that his position is going to get kinda ugly in the next few years. Sure, he’s riding high now, but fans are fickle. A year ago he was taking a beating and his Rowand and Zito deals still sting. In his business it’s a “what have you done for me lately”type of job. Unless the Giants win again this year, I wonder how long the honeymoon will last.
Ah Dave, my voice of reason. Thank you for actually taking the time to read, think and digest rather than go with the initial lash out. I know it’s a touchy subject as Giants fans are passionate and loyal, but you’re right….baseball is also a business and the “what have you done for me lately” mentality is always in play. With any luck, Sabean will handle this matter wisely and expeditiously.
I’m not opposed to the idea of trading Lincecum, but I don’t like the idea of trading him for Sabathia at all. There’s a few reasons for this:
Sabathia, while a workhorse, is overrated. He’s not on the same level of Lincecum and is significantly older. That doesn’t mean I don’t want him, but it wouldn’t be an equal trade. Furthermore, if he were to opt out of his deal and be willing to give the Giants a big discount (and that’s a gigantic “if”), why should we TRADE for him? Why send the Yankees anything for him if we may just be able to sign him to a deal from free agency?
If Sabathia opts out, it will almost certainly be in an A-Rod-like move for more money. If the situation is that he is truly unhappy in the Bronx, maybe we can get him. But I don’t see why we would give the Yanks the Franchise for someone who is leaving anyway.
All of what you suggested is, of course, a longshot, but if Sabathia comes to the Giants–which I doubt–Lincecum would be better dealt for an elite hitter. The Giants have put together a lineup that gets the job done, but they lack a Ryan Braun, an Albert Pujols, or an Evan Longoria. I’m not saying we can get one of those guys for Lincecum, but we need a stud in the lineup. Posey is great, but he’ll never be at their level, if for no other reason than the fewer at-bats he’ll receive at catcher.
Again, I don’t have a fundamental issue with trading Lincecum. But I think trading him in a one-on-one deal or for a lesser pitcher that will come at a potentially higher price is madness.
Definitely some valid points, Danny. Although I wouldn’t say that 4 years is “significantly” older.
I was only posing the question as a hypothetical in lieu of a bitter arbitration battle with Lincecum. Trading for Sabathia would only make sense if the big guy agreed to forget about the opt out clause and work out a deal for less money with the Giants. We would need to be able to have a deal in place before anything was finalized.
Waiting until he actually does opt out gives the Giants no chance of signing him AND retaining Lincecum. Don’t forget, we have another date at the arbitration table with Timmy at the end of the season, so negotiating with him AND trying to convince CC to sign for less money is virtually an impossibility.
I agree that the impact bat is a far superior return for Lincecum, but I think we would need another strong starter to slide into the rotation if we were to do anything like that. This team was built on Strong pitching and decent, not fantastic, hitting. Adding one bat to the lineup and removing arguably our best starter would be counter-productive at this point.
Now trading Sanchez for a bigger bat……that intrigues me.
Late comment but I got to say you are way off base in saying that Lincecum could have asked for considerably more than that. The contract that resulted (9 Million in salary and bonus in 2010) should be an indicator that you were way overstating his leverage. So much of the the arbitration process is tied into service time in relation to performance and no first year arbitration player is ever going to be able to get a contract that pays him the equivalent of what top free agents get on the open market. The system is designed so that the 2nd, 3rd, or in rare cases, 4th year of arbitration leaves room for pay increases that get the player close to what his value would be on the open market.
Great blog. Definite bookmark.
Are you kidding me? Really the dumbest article I read in a while.
First off, Timmy is a better pitcher and nearly 4 years younger. Secondly reason CC would opt out is for more money. Currently making over 20 million a year. As much as a hometown discount would be why would he sign with the Giants. If the Giants were to ever pay even 15-20 million or hometown discount over a multiple year deal then why wouldn’t they do it with Timmy. The jusifications make no sense, if there were any pitcher the giants should take care of it be Timmy: face of franchise, 2 time cy young winner, won a game in every playoff round.
Also a trade cc for Timmy while cc still has 4 years and over 100 million dollars on his current deal? Unless he agrees that he will opt out after the trade then possibly it could work and yes you mentioned how the arbitration process can get ugly but you also failed to mention how Timmy once said he’s ok doing two year deals at a time. Cc is prolly on his last contract and will want largest average annual value. Even when cliff lee went to phillies over Yankees everyone thought he was leaving money on table (which he did) but he still went to team that offered Jim highest annual value. I’m sorry the justifications for cc timmy trade are quote comical to me. Why would the giants consider trading face of franchise for an overweight pitcher who is looking to get paid. If there was one guy giants ion up paycheck it be timmy
One last thing on cc. Not Dissin him bc I think he’s a fine pitcher with a nice resume, but why else would he show up to camp 30lbs lighter? It’s bc he’s in a contract year. Meaning he wants to get paid. It’s prolly leverage for him so Yankees can tack on a few extra years on current deal. Also everyone alwys says hometown discount but at end of day it’s about show me money. Maybe you are right to degree giants may have not finanials flexibility to afford tinny and arbitreation process can get ugly but the justifications for cc for Timmy swap make no sense bc cc wants to get paid on what will be his last deal, if giants aren’t willin to pay Timmy then there’s no reason to pay cc. Lastly the giants would be foolish to do an in season trade cc for Timmy when cc still has over 4 years 100 million on deal. When would trade happen? In offseason after he opts out? This ain’t like basketball where sign and trades don’t happen
You mention the cc rumors a few years ago in 2008. I highly doubt the giants were that interested as they were and still gettin over the zito deal and Timmy had just won his first cy young . The rumors were mainly cc prolly wanting to play for giants, but I doubt the feeling was mutual. Second you mention he prolly has a better chance to win another world series in next few years, I’m sorry but I disagree. The Yankees are and will always be setup for longhaul do to financial resources. There’s a reason they’ve made plyoffs 14 of last 15 years. I’m a lifelong giants fan and last years run was great but Yankees are better suited to win in short and long run. Lastly yes the Yankees may be playing hardball with jeter and have some bad money tied up in bad contracts, but there’s no way they are losing cc especially if it comes to a bidding war. With pettites retirement and burnett’s struggled they will do verything to keep cc
Lastly maybe if u brought up point that cc doesn’t like ny or his family doesn’t, but that’s not the case. He’s an iconic hero, won a world series ring, his teammates respect him, and he knows Yankees can pay the most. You really think he lost 20lbs for his health? No, he’s in a contract year and wants to get paid. Loyalty and home town discount only go so far bc at end of day it’s always about the money. The yankees will continue to have a payroll north of 200 million while the Giants will be in 100-120 million range.
Back to Timmy, last year he and his agent mentioned he’s ok with doing 1-2 year deals with time. I’m actually ok with giants giving him 2 years 40 million or 50 million deal. It’s the bad long term deal (a la zito) which ultimately hurt them. And yes arbitration process gets ugly but that’s with everyone especially team looking out for itself and player tryin to get as much as their worth. Again if this artcle is about giants not being able to afford Timmy in long run because of either financial resources or not being able to lock up all their players, but the mere mention of cc for Timmy is quite comical
You make some valid points there, Jon. Not all that I agree with, but some with validity nonetheless. While Timmy may have said that he’s happy with 1 and 2 year deals, I firmly believe that will change. No athlete (nor any agent) would allow for such little job security as the aging process takes place. The reason athletes seek the long term contracts is for the job security necessary due to the average “lifespan” of a player and at some point, Lincecum will realize that he will need said security. Everyone likes to talk about team loyalty and that “Timmy’s not that kind of guy,” but they said the same thing about Pujols too. That his heart was in St. Louis and it wasn’t about the money for him or the need for a long term deal through the arbitration process. Now look what’s happening. Pujols is being pressured by the MLBPA to sign a deal that’s good for the players overall, not just good for him, and that’s exactly what he’s doing right now. Players change their minds, whether it’s on their own or with the help of others.
Now I’m not saying that it’s definite, and I truly don’t believe that the Giants would deal Lincecum away. I’m just saying that if we’re not going to give out anymore long term deals and suddenly that’s what Timmy wants, then let’s keep ourselves covered.
My proposition about CC was strictly contingent on his rejection of the opt out and willingness to re-negotiate with the Giants for a discounted price to pitch at home when traded. I agree that his weight loss is a direct correlation to his now impending contract year, and likely to do with getting the Yankees to pony up a few extra mil per year, but maybe there’s a small chance that he sees the handwriting on the wall in New York and maybe the extra cash isn’t worth the chances of winning another World Series elsewhere, say in front of his hometown. Say what you will about the Yankees budget and willingness to throw around the money, but they are definitely not in a place that is close to winning a title right now, nor will they be in the next few years.
Bottom line is this…..we need to lock in Lincecum (while preventing the ugliness of a heated arbitration battle) and still have the money to spend on Cain, Wilson and maybe Sanchez…plus the arbitration process/negotiations with Posey and Bumgarner….and eventually Brandon Belt. That’s a lot of money over the next 5 years.
Hmmm…fair counter points I guess Howard. But the Yankees are built to make the playoffs every year thanks to the budget. Even in the loaded al east, they will always make the necessary moves thanks to the financial resources. Think back to end of 2008 when they missed playoffs for first time in 12 years. They went out and got cc, Burnett, texeira, and traded for swish. Look I agree the giants may not be able to lock up Timmy bc they can’t take care of everyone and I also agree that the giants may have already got the best of him and he’s soon to break down due to small build and high torque delivery but the most plausible scenario in that case would to trade him for prospects not for an aging pitcher who defiitelu wants to get paid. I see a similar parallel of what could happen with Timmy as with Johan Santana after leaving Minnesota. He was aweseome with twinkies , winning games and cy youngs, best pitcher on planet but with mets he’s been okay and had injuries. I’m hoping Timmy doesn’t end up like that but if so either because of injuries or not wanting to pay, then you deal him for prospects, not an aging pitcher.
I agree with trading for prospects if you’re comfortable with everything you have to win now, but to trade a player of Lincecum’s caliber, you want major league ready talent with the ability to compete for today. The influx of youth with Posey, Bumgarner, Belt, possibly Crawford is great, but you need some experienced veterans to pair them with.
Yes, but the justifications or reasoning for timmy for cc make no sense. Look CC wants to get paid. He’s currently making 23 million a year on current deal (7 years 160 million) His opt out clause was for him to make more money and gain some add’l years on deal assuming he pitches well. With 4 years on current deal left he is probably looking for add’l 2-3 years at average of 25 million annually. CC is probably looking to be highest paid pitcher in game at average annual value and current benchmark is cliff lee at 25 million. he can leverage that a) he’s won a world series and cliff lee hasn’t and b) he knows how important he is to yankees. So basically his starting point would be 25 million and 6 years. (current 4 year deal and add’l two years) Even in your “hometown discount scenario” if he were willing to sign 18-20 million with giants rather then 25 and lets say even for 5 years instead of 6 or 7(what he can get with yankees) why would the giants pay that money to CC and not timmy who is younger, face of franchise, and more marketable. If the giants weren’t gonna resign timmy, then they sure ain’t gonna sign cc in any hometown discount scenario you may have. Tim’s current salary is 12 million a year and i’m actually comfortable doing 2 year deal after this at 40-50 million a year. Come on Howard you can do better then that.
I will definitely concede the point that all signs point towards CC being greedy and simply using his opt out clause to pull in more years and more money from the Yankees. My hyppthetical proposal was not only contingent on CC taking a discount, but on accepting more in line with a 3 year deal. Improbable? Of course. Worth investigating his mindset? I don’t see the harm.
Accepting a 3 year deal would probably mean CC leaving over 100 million on the table. Chances of that? Nearly impossible. Unless the giants give him a 3 year 80-90 million deal, but then again, why would they do that when they could do that with Timmy.
I think a major undersight of your analysis is failure of mentioning zito at all in your original article. Yes the giants were fortunate to win a world series, but they have and will continue to be pain and suffering from giving an aging pitcher who’s won a cy young with lots of innings on his resume and will be 30+ at end of contract a long term deal. lets see CC and Zito both fit that bill. if there’s anything the giants have learned, it’s that they probably won’t do it again especially with abundance of young pitching arms in the organization. if anything, maybe they don’t sign timmy but then they go after a pure slugger or hitter, not CC. -)
Lastly, you also failed to mentioned Lincecum and the revenue/income related to his marketability and being the giants most popular player. go check the giants dynamic pricing from past 2 years. Which games sold out most and which games cost the most? Besides dodgers game it’s probably the games timmy has started. yes, i understand winning the world series has led to an increase in season ticket sales and overall popularity of team, but the Giants can continue to make money marketing off Timmy (bobbleheads, jersey sales, etc…)
“major league ready talent is nice” but often when star players get traded it’s for a package of prospects due to low salary and service time. Look back to this summer and trades that were made, what “major league ready talent” did padres get for adrian gonzalez? who did the royals get for zack greinke? who did blue jays get when they traded roy halliday? even the indians dealing of cliff lee and cc sabathia from a few years ago, who did they get. It’s always about prospects Howard – )
And lastly, i’m not disagreeing that the Giants may not be able to afford timmy. that’s a fact. the giants will have alot of guys approaching free agency and will not be able to take care of everybody. lets face it they’re still a middle of market team even with all world series appeal. Their payroll will continue to be in 100-120 million range while the heavy hitters (yankees and red sox) will be north of 200 million. but the CC for timmy make no sense.
None of those teams you mentioned, the Royals, Indians, Padres or even the Jays had the core talent the Giants have or were in any kind of a position to trade a superstar and maintain a “win now” mentality. The Giants division is not strong and they have more than a shot to take the division again with what they have.
I was simply referring to the fact if you could look at any recent star or superstar player that was traded for “major league talent” in return. Can you name any? Point is: doesn’t happen often, almost all of time it’s for prospects.
Let’s take your scenario: cc wants to play for giants and is willing to take “hometown discount”. Instead of 23 million hr would be willin to go 18-20 range. Instead of a 7 year deal maybe he goes 5. He either be looking for a deal which a) gives him a high average annual value (like cliff lee 5 years 125) or b) highest total money. Look I don’t think cc is ready to walk away yet as he’s yet to make over 100 million dollars in his career deal. He’s getting older so his next deal will set him and family for life. Back to ny: he’s already won a ring, admired by fans (unlike arod), respected by teammates, and knows Yankees will be in it every year. Unless some foolish team this offseason wants to get in a bidding war with yankees he will be wearing pinstripes in ’12 after signing 3 year extension on current deal.
“knows Yankees will be in it every year”
My New York brethren may string me up for saying this, but by my projections, I have the Yankees finishing third in the AL East thanks to a shoddy rotation. CC is the top gun, Hughes should be fine, but where does it go from there? Burnett? Yuck. Nova? Totally unproven. Mitre? Do I even need a clever response to that one?
Yes, I have them 3rd too, but what I mean as in “in it every year” is completing for playoff spot. They may not always be the favorite to win the division, but they will always be competing for a playoff spot and definitely in the mix. History doesn’t lie: yankees playoffs 14 of past 15 years while giants barely won division on last day of year and playoffs 5 of last 15. Yes giants window now may be greater but that doesn’t mean the yankees are a slouch. 3rd in division probably, but definitely in wild card and division yes. yes, their rotation is down this year but think back a few years ago when they made free 2nd to 3rd tier free agent signings with carl pavano, jaret wright. etc…they simply fill in holes. yes they struck out in free agency with cliff lee, but they will just sign free agents to plug in holes next year…
Hmmmm. Pavano and Wright, huh? Yeah, the Yankees have certainly been known to makes moves like that. How’d those turn out? Just because you can throw money around doesn’t mean it always works. Check the Yankees from ’83 – ’94. What the’ve got going right now looks like the start of a similar cycle and maybe, just maybe CC sees that too. Again, not likely for him to move, but cerainly an intriguing thought if he wants another ring.
Once again the Yankees are in first place. Even with all the injuries and plugs in to rotation they still are in first place. Not saying it will translate into postseason success but first place at the halfway mark in the toughest division in baseball counts for something. -) for a so called baseball expert surprised you had them finishing 3rd. I could see argument for 2nd but after rays lost crawford, pena, and traded garza I’m not buying it. Pitching helps (as giants have proven) but offense prevails too. Now they still could finish 3rd all together but don’t always base things off paper. There is a reason they’ve made playoffs 14 of last 15 years. They’ve created a winning culture and Joe giradi is an underrated manager…….
I don’t mind being wrong about the Yankees not finishing third. It was actually Toronto that I had second, but between a lot of their pitching problems and a few offensive things gone awry, they haven’t had the showing that I expected. But this is where you come back to Jon? I thought we were going to get a CC vs Timmy midway point comparison when I first saw you commented…
Maybe if cc just wrapped up a big contract in his career and now just wants to pitch in his hometown then yes similar to Andy pettite in ’03. But even then the astros had to show petite the money. Again your recent points about Timmy and arbitration process and pujols refeferemce are valid, but lastly in this case giants need to trade him for a package of prospects and build around Cain. In your whole cc scneario did u even mention zito? Maybe cc doesn’t want to pitch with Yankees and has already informed him that he is leaving. Maybe then the giants jump in and say ok we will trade for cc if u take zito and Timmy. That maybe is a possibility
Zito ain’t goin’ nowhere. No way, no how. We’re stuck with him and Giants fans just need to accept that. Some love him, most hate him, but everyone is in agreement that the albatross of a contract we handed him locks him in here…unless we did something wacky like piss on $57.5M and buy him out, which won’t happen. Doesn’t matter ho wmuch money other ball clubs have to throw around, no one’s picking up that mess.
One last post to wrap up everything I’ve already summarized. CC currently has at 4 years on current deal and over 90 million guaranteed. He’s probably looking to add on another 2-3 years of around 20 million annually. (whch the Yankees will give) so after this year he is looking at least 130 million guaranteed money. In your scenario where cc not only he gives them a hometown discount but also a three year deal rather then long term we are hypotehtically talking a 3 year 60 million deal. Which is basically saying he’s leaving between 50 to 80 million on table. News flash Howard: that ain’t happening. You contradct yourself saying earlier athletes in end always look out for themselves (a la pujols reference) and even Timmy sooner or later will look for his deal. No modern athlete has ever done that or will leave that much on table. It’s not like cc is a lebron type with mega endorsements. He knows this will be his last long term deal so and he’s going to cash in on it. That’s the primary reason he setup the opt clause was to gain add’l leverage and ultimately more dollars. If you’re gonna try to make points don’t contradict yourself. Athletes aren’t good samaritans and it’s always about the money as you said with pujols and Timmy. Don’t kid urself.
That’s why lastly your cc for Timmy is fooliish. The dollars, sense, and logic don’t work from all parties involved.
If this article was about “would the giants ever consider trading lincecum for….” then it makes some sense I guess, but once you throw in the cc nonsense it is quite hysterical actually. Try reading moneyball to get a sense of baseball economics.
Ah, there it is. Now you’re seeing the actual point of it all. You make very valid points as to why Sabathia would be a poor choice and that he would never leave money on the table nor settle for a shorter deal. Got it. No need to beat a dead horse. But the overall point was that…
If the Giants are no longer interested in giving out long term contracts, something Sabean has said a few times now, after the Zito and Rowand debacles, then what are we going to do when Lincecum joins the rest of MLB and decides that a 2 or 3 year deal is not enough for him? Even you have to admit that it isn’t just a possibility, but a probability.
If Lincecum continues through the arbitration process for another two years and we go year to year it has the potential of getting uglier and uglier. If he signs a 2 or 3 year deal that buys out his final years of arbitration, then what? He hits the open market and gets several 5 and 6 year deals as opposed to the 3 that the Giants will offer.
I’m talking about being proactive while maintaining a majority of what we have already built. We are competitive now and will be for the next few years even without Timmy, so long as we have a viable replacement in the rotation. Doesn’t have to be CC per se, but it needs to be someone strong and someone who may just be content with pitching for a contender on a shorter deal.
So in your hypothetical scenario, what offer are you saying he would take from giants? (how many years and dollars) Timmy was coming off his second consecutive cy young, was entering first year of arbitration and had just seen guys like Felix and verlander get 5 year 85 million dollars deals. The giants maybe had some leverage with the pot smokin incident but ultimatly they wre able to agree on 2 years 24 million. If Timmy has another fine season this year I can see him wanting to be highest pitcher in game in terms of average annual value. I’m actually ok with giants giving him a 2 year 50-60 million dollar deal. With the increased payroll and revenue stream and expiring 6 million contracts of sanchez and darosa and miggy expiring 6-7 million dollar deal coming off books, I think they will be able to fit in. I do worry about Timmy and his small build and high torque delivery and breaking down but that’s why you keep deals in 2-3 year range.
i would hate to see timmy in a yanks uniform.i would cry
Most Bay Area folk would, but you can’t deny that between the second half last season and the first half this year, that Sabathia has been the better pitcher and he’s doing it in a much more hitter friendly environment.
I would be happy if that happened! I’m a Yankee fan, but I love Lincecum!
i’ve been thinking lee for lincecum
cliff lee for lincecum
An interesting proposition, but I think CC is the more dominant pitcher and would serve as a better “ace” to Cain’s #2 status than Lee would.